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Stock Market
Corrections are Beautiful... and Necessary
by
Steve Selengut
Every correction is the same, a normal downturn in one or more of
the markets where we invest. There has never been a correction that
has not proven to be an investment opportunity. You can be confident
that governments around the world are not going to allow another
Great Depression "on their watch".
Every correction is different, the result of various economic and/or
political circumstances that create the need for adjustments in the
financial markets.
While everything is down in price, as it is now, there is actually
less to worry about. When the going gets tough, the tough go
shopping.
In this case, an overheated real estate market, an overdose of
financial bad judgment, and a damn the torpedoes stock market,
propelled by demand for speculative derivative securities and Hedge
Funds, finally came unglued.
But it is the reality of corrections that is one of the few
certainties of the financial world, one that separates the men from
the boys, if you will. If you fixate on your portfolio market value
during a correction, you will just give yourself a headache, or
worse.
Few of the fundamental qualities that made your IGVSI securities
sound investments just two years ago have permanently disappeared.
We'll be using credit cards, driving cars and motorcycles, drinking
beer, and buying clothes twenty years from now. Very few interest
payments have been missed and surprisingly few dividends eliminated.
Only the prices have changed, to preserve the long-term reality of
things---and in both of our markets.
Corrections are beautiful things, but having two of them going on at
the same time is like a trip to Fantasy Land. Theoretically, even
technically I'm told, corrections adjust prices to their actual
value or "support levels". In reality, it's much easier than that.
Prices go down because of speculator reactions to expectations of
news, speculator reactions to actual news, and investor profit
taking.
The two "becauses" are more potent than ever because there is more
self-directed money than ever. And therein lies the core of
correctional beauty. Mutual Fund unit holders rarely take profits
but rush to take losses. Additionally, the new breed of unregulated
index-fund speculations is capable of producing a constant diet of
volatility overload. New investment opportunities are everywhere.
Here's a list of ten things to think about or to do during
corrections:
1. Don't beat yourself up by looking at your market value. You don't
live in a vacuum and you should expect lower valuations. That is why
you should only buy the highest quality securities in the first
place and stick with a well-defined asset allocation plan. Look for
ways to add to your portfolios.
2. Take a look at the past. There has never been a correction that
has not proven to be a buying opportunity, in spite of the media
hype that this one is somehow special. When they are broad, long,
and deep, the rally that follows is normally broad, long, and steep.
Get ready to party.
3. The "Smart Cash" produced by interest and dividends should be
placed in new stocks for rapid profitable turnover--- don't be shy
when you're looking at 50% discounts from recent highs. Buying too
soon, in the right portfolio percentage, is nearly as important to
long-term investment success as selling too soon is during rallies.
4. Take a look at the future. Nope, you can't tell when the rally
will come or how long it will last. If you are buying quality
securities now, as you certainly should be, you will be able to love
the rally even more than you did the last time--- as you take yet
another round of profits.
5. Buy more quickly in a prolonged correction, but establish new
positions incompletely so that you can add to them safely later.
There's more to "Shop at the Gap" than meets the eye, and you should
remain confidently fully-invested at least until the media starts
whispering: "rally".
6. Cash flow is king. Take smaller profits sooner than usual as long
as there are abundant buying opportunities. Today, nearly sixty
percent of all Investment Grade Value Stocks are down more than 25%
from their 52-week highs. As long your cash flow continues unabated,
change in market value is just a perceptual issue.
7. Note that your Working Capital is growing, in spite of fallen
market prices, and examine your holdings for opportunities to
average down and increase your yield on fixed income securities.
Examine both fundamentals and price, lean hard on your experience,
and don't force the issue.
8. Identify new buying opportunities using a consistent set of
rules, be it rally or correction. That way you will always know
which of the two you are dealing with in spite of the Wall Street
propaganda. Focus on Investment Grade Value Stocks; it's easier,
less risky, and better for your peace of mind.
9. Examine your portfolio's performance in terms of market, interest
rate, and economic cycles as opposed to calendar time intervals.
Apply your asset allocation to your analysis for meaningful-to-you
results.
10. So long as everything is down, there is little to worry about
long term. Downgraded, or simply lazy, portfolio holdings should not
be discarded during general or group specific weakness--- unless you
don't have the courage to get rid of them during rallies.
Corrections of all types will vary in depth and duration, and both
characteristics are clearly visible only in institutional-grade rear
view mirrors. The short and deep ones are most lovable; the long and
slow ones are more difficult to deal with.
Most corrections are relatively short and difficult to take
advantage of with mutual funds. So if you over-think the environment
or over-cook the research, you'll miss the after-party. Unlike many
things in life, Stock Market realities need to be dealt with
quickly, decisively, and with zero hindsight.
Amid all of the uncertainty, there is one indisputable fact that
reads equally well in either market direction: there has never been
a correction-rally that has not succumbed to the next
rally-correction.
NOTICE: Investment Reference does not recommend
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material contained in any article is only the opinion of the person authoring the
article. Investment reference will publish any article submitted as a way of
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Last modified:
January 01, 2010
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