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Dismal Decade My
Asterisk - Market Cycle Investing
by
Steve Selengut
From the end of 1999 through the end of 2009, all of the popular
Wall Street market performance measurement tools were in the red.
The average bloodletting level of the DJIA, the S & P 500, and the
NASDAQ was a disturbing-to-some minus nineteen percent.
The Media has dubbed it "The Dismal Decade".
Most of the investment community is either open-mouthed in shock or
strident in blame about the somethings or someones who must be
responsible for such horrific performance. Never again they swear to
their clients--- without ever a hint that they might themselves be
the problem.
It won't be long before the Wizards of Wall Street announce that
they have studied the situation, and readied their sales minions to
switch the shattered investment public into yet another fail proof
(fool-magnet?) portfolio of hedges, gimmicks, signal responders, and
panaceas for whatever the new decade brings.
Once again they will attempt to debug the market cycle and create an
upward only future for the masses. Try not to be abused again--- the
markets aren't broken, just the market shakers. Your portfolio
should be up in market value--- and not by just a little for the
"dismal decade".
These are the same geniuses that created the dotcom bubble by
cramming valueless securities and speculative IPOs down your
throats. They are the same charlatans who created the derivative
markets and fraudulently hid their gaming devices in innocent
looking rolls of tissue paper.
Wall Street thrives on the boom and bust scenario--- because it
doesn't really matter to them how many of you win or lose. The
evidence is clear; a boring-but-winning approach has been out there
(and ignored) for three equally productive decades. The investment
gods are outraged!
The past decade was a fabulous decade for old-fashioned value
investors, particularly those with a reasonable selling discipline
in their methodology!
It was a fabulous decade for those who understood that quality,
diversification, and income generation are principles as opposed to
media placating buzzwords.
It was a fabulous decade for those investors who were able to see
over, beyond, and through artificial time constraints to find the
long-term opportunities within every beautiful market cycle
undulation. There were plenty of gyrations to gyrate to if you only
knew how.
Investing is no longer a passive enterprise; and it never really
was. If you can't manage your portfolio throughout the market cycle,
without succumbing either to greed, to panic, or to artificial and
complicated hedging strategies, just stop. Right now. Listen and
learn something old.
The only market cycle hedges needed are quality, diversification,
and income--- all classically defined. Throw in some disciplined
selection and selling guidelines, a cost-based asset allocation
formula, and a non-calendar year perspective and success will
follow--- cyclically.
You may miss a speculative spike or two (i.e., bubbles), but in the
long run, Market Cycle Investment Management (MCIM) is a proven
methodology for long run investment success.
You just can't replace market cycle reality with calendar year
gimmickry. Do better. Google investment grade value stock and
request the ten-year MCIM numbers.
Change is good.
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Last modified:
January 06, 2010
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