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Strategic Investment Mixology - The Holy Grail Cocktail
by
Steve Selengut
So what do your Investment Manager and your neighborhood bartender have
in common, other than the probability that you spend more time with the
latter during market corrections? Antoine Tedesco, in his "The History
of Cocktails" article, lists three things that mixologists consider
important to remember and to understand when making a cocktail: 1) the
base spirit, which gives the drink its main flavor; 2) the mixer or
modifier, which blends well with the main spirit without overpowering
it; 3) the flavoring, which brings it all together.
Similarly, your Investment Manager needs to: 1) put together a portfolio
that is based on your financial situation, goals, and plans, providing
both a sense of direction and a framework for decision making; 2) use a
well defined and consistent investment methodology that fits well with
the investment plan without leading it in tangential directions; 3)
exercise experienced judgment in the day-to-day decision making that
brings the whole thing together and makes it grow.
Tedesco explains that new cocktails are the result of experimentation
and curiosity; that they reflect the moods of society; and that they
change rapidly as both bartenders and their customers seek out new and
different concoctions to popularize. The popularity of most newbies is
fleeting; the reign of the old stalwarts is history--- with the
exception, perhaps, of "Goat's Delight" and "Hoptoad". But, rest
assured, the "Old Tom Martini" is here to stay!
It's likely that many of the products, derivatives, funds, and fairy
tales that emanate from Wall Street were thrown together over "ti many
martunies" at Bobby Van's or Cipriani's, and just like alcohol, the
addictive products created in lower Manhattan have led many a Hummer
load of speculators down the Holland tubes. The financial products of
the day are themselves, products of the moods of society. The wizards
experiment tirelessly; the customers' search for the Holy Grail cocktail
is endless. Curiosity kills many retirement plans.
Investment portfolio mixology doesn't take place in the smiley faced
environment that brought us the Cosmo and the Kamikaze, but putting an
investment cocktail together without the risk of addictive speculations,
or bad after tastes, is a valuable talent worth finding or developing
for yourself. The starting point should be a trip to portfolio-tending
school, where the following courses of study are included in the
Investment Mixology Program:
(1) Understanding Investment Securities. Investment securities can be
divided into two major classes that make the planning exercise called
asset allocation relatively straightforward. The purpose of the equity
class is to generate profits in the form of capital gains. Income
securities are expected to produce a predictable and stable cash flow in
the form of dividends, interest, royalties, rents, etc.
All investment securities involve some form of risk, but risk can be
minimized with appropriate diversification disciplines and sensible
selection criteria. Still, regardless of your skills in selection and
diversification, all securities will fluctuate in market price and
should be expected to do so with semi-predictable, cyclical regularity.
(2) Planning Securities Decisions. There are three basic decision
processes that require guideline development and procedural discipline:
what to buy and when; when to sell and what; what to hold on to and why.
(3) Market Cycle Management. Most securities portfolio market values are
influenced by the semi predictable movements of several inter-related
economic cycles: interest rates, the IGVSI, the US economy, and the
world economy. The cycles themselves will be influenced by Mother
Nature, politics, and other short-term concerns and disruptions.
(4) Performance Evaluation. Historically, Peak-to-Peak analysis was most
popular for judging the performance of individual and mutual fund growth
in market value because it could be separately applied to the long-term
cyclical movement of both classes of investment security. More recently,
short-term fluctuations in the DJIA and S & P 500 are being used as
performance benchmarks to fan the emotional fear and greed of most
market participants.
(5) Information Filtering. It's important to limit information inputs,
and to develop filters and synthesizers that simplify decision-making.
What to listen to, and what to allow into the decision making process is
part of the experienced managers skill set. There is just too much
information out there, mostly self-motivated, to deal with in the time
allowed.
Wall Street investment mixologists promote a cocktail that has broad
popular appeal but which typically creates an unpleasant aftertaste in
the form of bursting bubbles, market crashes, and shareholder lawsuits.
Many of the most creative financial nightclubs have been fined by
regulators and beaten up by angry mobs with terminal pocketbook cramps.
The problem is that their concoctions include mixers that overwhelm and
obscure the base spirits of the investment portfolio: quality,
diversification, and income.
There are four conceptual ingredients that you need to siphon out of
your investment cocktail, and one to add: (1) Considering market value
alone when analyzing performance ignores the cyclical nature of the
securities markets and the world economy. (2) Using indices and averages
as benchmarks for evaluating your performance ignores both the
allocation of your portfolio and the individuality of the securities
you've selected.
(3) Using the calendar year as a measuring device reduces the investment
process to a short-term speculation, ignores all financial cycles,
increases the emotional volatility of the investment markets, and
guarantees that you will be unhappy with whatever strategy or
methodology you employ. (4) Buying any type or class of security,
commodity, index, or contract at historically high prices and selling
high quality companies or debt obligations for losses during cyclical
corrections eventually causes hair loss and shortness of breath.
And the one to add--- The Working Capital Model.
Cheers!
Steve Selengut
800-245-0494
http://www.sancoservices.com
http://www.investmentmanagementbooks.com
Professional Portfolio Management since 1979
Author of: "The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book that
Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read", and "A Millionaire's Secret
Investment Strategy"
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Last modified:
May 27, 2008
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