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Award page Items you need to improve and protect your FCM or IB...
1.
Very important and useful forms and letters for
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IGVSI Performance Expectations - WCM
Portfolios
by
Steve Selengut
No investor should ever be surprised by the changes in market value
that appear on his or her monthly brokerage account statements. In
general, media noise throughout the month should lead to a feel for
what has been going on and investors should understand that the
market prices of investment securities are constantly changing.
No investor should be particularly surprised by the changes in
market value that have taken place over the preceding year. In
general, short-term changes in portfolio values will correlate
positively with shorter-term prognostications about the economy,
interest rates, and government plans for the political direction of
the country.
No investor should make changes to his or her WCM portfolio based
upon short-term events or media/Wall Street/Washington speculations
of the impact of such events on the future direction any cycle or
financial market.
Most investors back into the portfolio development process by making
short-term decisions based on guesswork, hype, "insider"
information, media stories, etc. Their selections are expected to
"perform" (Wall Streetese for go up in price better than other
similar speculations.) quickly, or at least within the calendar year
of their purchase.
Most investors wind up with "buckshot" portfolios that are asset
allocation confused, qualitatively questionable, diversification
rule indistinguishable, and income generation not thought "aboutable".
Most investors are caught in a devious "product" trap. They think in
terms of buying an investment product instead of making an
investment in something of value. They believe that any upward price
movement in their product choice is good, sustainable, and unrelated
to anything else in their environment save the genius of this year's
financial advisor.
Most investors have no use at all for any bad news that adversely
impacts the market value of their investment products. Those few who
learn to buy on bad news to take advantage of oversold market
conditions benefit exponentially from their sound judgment. Most of
these, however, forget to realize their profits.
Some investors take the time to think about where they are going
before they get started selecting securities to put inside their
portfolios. They distinguish between the income generation purpose
of one class of securities and the realized capital gains, or
growth, potential of the other, more exciting class.
Some investors have learned that the Working Capital Model (the WCM)
allows them to put the extremely important asset-allocation-plan
step on autopilot, so they can focus their efforts on selection,
diversification, and profit taking. These investors generally know
what they want (and expect) from every security they add to their
portfolios.
Some investors have learned what to expect from income securities in
various IRE (Interest Rate Expectations) environments and understand
that price changes rarely have a negative impact on income
production. Most WCM investors have been patient enough to see
nearly all income securities survive severe credit market problems
with only minor payout reductions, if any.
A few investors understand that they will eventually want to
partially support themselves with the income their portfolios
produce, and they program their decisions to assure an annually
increasing level of essential retirement "base income". Few mutual
fund investors even know what base income is, much less think about
it.
A few WCM investors have learned how to focus on their growing base
income while most mutual fund, index fund, and NASDAQ investors rely
on growth in market value to somehow fund their pension plans. In
the real world of cycles, dislocations, Madoffs, and credit
crunches, the market value plan just doesn't do it.
A few investors try to pick and choose those elements of the WCM
that they will or will not include in their approach to the
securities markets. That doesn't do it either.
All investors need to become intimate with both the content of their
portfolios and the workings of the various cycles that impact on
security market values. They need to expect, even anticipate
cyclical changes in the market values of their securities by taking
reasonable profits in either classification willingly, gleefully,
and without hindsight.
All investors need to plan their portfolios in a manner that allows
them to add to positions at predefined, acceptable, lower price
points during cyclical (and hysterical) market value downturns. Fear
control allows these WCM types to create larger cash flows and more
easily attainable profit-taking target levels for the eventual
upswing.
All investors need to exorcise the two major Wall Street demons: (1)
blind devotion to portfolio market value change analysis from one
blink of the market cycle's eye to the next, and (2) focus on the
length of time it takes the planet to travel around the Sun while
ignoring the cyclical facts of investment life.
No person should become an investor until and unless he or she forms
a set of precise expectations about the behavior of securities
values--- all securities values, at all stages of the stock market,
interest rate, and economic cycles.
No person should become an investor without first having established
reasonable long-term goals and objectives and/or without
understanding which classes and types of securities are most likely
to safely move him toward achievement.
No person should be so fearful of current financial conditions that
he is thinking more of loss taking than bargain hunting or that he
is expecting market value growth when he should be embracing a
rising working capital.
WCM people think of performance in terms of growing productive
working capital and annually increasing levels of base income---
irrespective of market conditions. WCM equity investors think in
terms of their completed profitable trades--- how many, average gain
per trade, holding period.
WCM--- you can do it.
NOTICE: Investment Reference does not recommend
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Last modified:
January 01, 2010
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