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Investment Grade Value Stocks At Ten
Year Lows
by
Steve Selengut
There has never been a correction that has not proven to be an
investment opportunity. While everything is down in price, there is
actually less to worry about than when prices are historically high.
More money has been lost by people who bought into last year's
markets than by those who will buy into this one, at this stage of
the correction. When the going gets tough, the tough go shopping.
Every correction is different, the result of various economic and/or
political circumstances that create the need for adjustments in the
financial markets. This correction is worse than most that I've
experienced, but the doom and gloom scenarios many have been pushing
are unlikely to come to fruition. Once the media elects a new
president, they'll just have to start reporting better news: 96% of
all mortgages are current sounds a whole lot better than 20% of all
sub-prime mortgages are in trouble.
Some fundamentals in many excellent companies have eroded
significantly (due in part to accounting rules that are being
changed), but for the most part, interest payments are being made
and few dividends have been cut. Bargain prices abound in both the
equity and fixed income markets and interest rates are historically
low.
A cocktail of credit market laxatives is working its way into a
constipated world economy. Relief is on the way. Today's prices may
well be looked at as the lowest of the next ten years! Here's a list
of things to think about or to do while Investment Grade value Stock
prices are at ten-year lows:
Don't beat yourself up by looking at your account market value. You
should expect it to be down significantly because all security
prices have fallen. Look for ways to add to your portfolios---that's
what the smart guys are doing.
Keep in mind that someone is buying the individual shares that the
others are selling. The buyers will hold on until they can turn a
profit, and the cash on the sidelines will eventually find its way
back into the markets as prices rise.
There are no crystal balls, and no place for hindsight in an
investment strategy. Buying too soon, in the right portfolio
percentage, is nearly as important to long-term investment success
as selling too soon is during rallies.
Take a look at the future. Nope, you can't tell when the rally will
come or how long it will last. If you are buying quality securities
now, as you certainly should be, you will be able to love the rally
even more than you did the last time--- as you take yet another
round of profits.
As, or if, the correction continues, buy more slowly as opposed to
more quickly, and establish new positions incompletely so that you
can add to them safely later. There's more to "Shop at The Gap" than
meets the eye, and you may run out of cash well before the new rally
begins.
Cash flow is king, so take smaller profits sooner than usual as long
as there are abundant buying opportunities. Today, nearly eighty
percent of all Investment Grade Value Stocks are down more than 15%
from their 52-week highs.
In looking at your income securities, cash flow is the primary
concern; as long as it continues unabated, the change in market
value is merely a perceptual/emotional issue. A loosening of the
credit markets should move CEF prices back into normal ranges.
Note that Working Capital keeps growing in spite of falling prices.
Examine your holdings for opportunities to average down on cost per
share or to increase your yield on fixed income securities.
Identify new buying opportunities using a consistent set of rules,
rally or correction. That way you will always know which of the two
you are dealing with in spite of what the Wall Street propaganda
mill spits out. Focus on Investment Grade Value Stocks; it's easier,
generally less risky, and better for your peace of mind.
Stop examining your portfolio's performance in market value terms---
it leads to fearful, often frantic, decision-making. Keep your asset
allocation and investment objectives clearly in focus and try to
think in terms of market and economic cycles as opposed to calendar
quarters and years. The Working Capital Model provides a calmer way
of dealing with portfolio dislocations during severe corrections.
So long as everything is down, there is really less to worry about.
This is the result of panic selling by ETF and open-end mutual fund
owners and the beginnings of year-end window dressing by fund
managers.
Corrections, regardless of cause, will vary in depth and duration,
but both characteristics are only clearly visible in rear view
mirrors. The short and deep ones are most lovable; the long and slow
ones are more difficult to deal with. If you over-think the
environment or over-cook the research, you'll miss the after-party.
Unlike many things in life, Stock Market realities need to be dealt
with quickly, decisively, and with zero hindsight. Because amid all
the uncertainty, there is one indisputable fact that reads equally
well in either market direction: there has never been a
correction/rally that has not succumbed to the next
rally/correction.
Get out there and buy low for a change.
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Last modified:
January 01, 2010
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