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Preventing Investment Mistakes: Ten Risk Minimizers
by
Steve Selengut
Most investment mistakes are caused by basic misunderstandings of
the securities markets and by invalid performance expectations. The
markets move in totally unpredictable cyclical patterns of varying
duration and amplitude. Evaluating the performance of the two major
classes of investment securities needs to be done separately because
they are owned for differing purposes. Stock market equity
investments are expected to produce realized capital gains;
income-producing investments are expected to generate cash flow.
Losing money on an investment may not be the result of an investment
mistake, and not all mistakes result in monetary losses. But errors
occur most frequently when judgment is unduly influenced by emotions
such as fear and greed, hindsightful observations, and short-term
market value comparisons with unrelated numbers. Your own
misconceptions about how securities react to varying economic,
political, and hysterical circumstances are your most vicious enemy.
Master these ten risk-minimizers to improve your long-term
investment performance:
1. Develop an investment plan. Identify realistic goals that include
considerations of time, risk-tolerance, and future income
requirements--- think about where you are going before you start
moving in the wrong direction. A well thought out plan will not need
frequent adjustments. A well-managed plan will not be susceptible to
the addition of trendy speculations.
2. Learn to distinguish between asset allocation and diversification
decisions. Asset allocation divides the portfolio between equity
and income securities. Diversification is a strategy that limits the
size of individual portfolio holdings in at least three different
ways. Neither activity is a hedge, or a market timing devices.
Neither can be done precisely with mutual funds, and both are
handled most efficiently by using a cost basis approach like the
Working Capital Model.
3. Be patient with your plan. Although investing is always referred
to as long- term, it is rarely dealt with as such by investors, the
media, or financial advisors. Never change direction frequently, and
always make gradual rather than drastic adjustments. Short-term
market value movements must not be compared with un-portfolio
related indices and averages. There is no index that compares with
your portfolio, and calendar sub-divisions have no relationship
whatever to market, interest rate, or economic cycles.
4. Never fall in love with a security, particularly when the company
was once your employer. It's alarming how often accounting and other
professionals refuse to fix the resultant single-issue portfolios.
Aside from the love issue, this becomes an
unwilling-to-pay-the-taxes problem that often brings the unrealized
gain to the Schedule D as a realized loss. No profit, in either
class of securities, should ever go unrealized. A target profit must
be established as part of your plan.
5. Prevent "analysis paralysis" from short-circuiting your
decision-making powers. An overdose of information will cause
confusion, hindsight, and an inability to distinguish between
research and sales materials--- quite often the same document. A
somewhat narrow focus on information that supports a logical and
well-documented investment strategy will be more productive in the
long run. Avoid future predictors.
6. Burn, delete, toss out the window any short cuts or gimmicks that
are supposed to provide instant stock picking success with minimum
effort. Don't allow your portfolio to become a hodgepodge of mutual
funds, index ETFs, partnerships, pennies, hedges, shorts, strips,
metals, grains, options, currencies, etc. Consumers' obsession with
products underlines how Wall Street has made it impossible for
financial professionals to survive without them. Remember: consumers
buy products; investors select securities.
7. Attend a workshop on interest rate expectation (IRE) sensitive
securities and learn how to deal appropriately with changes in their
market value--- in either direction. The income portion of your
portfolio must be looked at separately from the growth portion.
Bottom line market value changes must be expected and understood,
not reacted to with either fear or greed. Fixed income does not mean
fixed price. Few investors ever realize (in either sense) the full
power of this portion of their portfolio.
8. Ignore Mother Nature's evil twin daughters, speculation and
pessimism. They'll con you into buying at market peaks and panicking
when prices fall, ignoring the cyclical opportunities provided by
Momma. Never buy at all time high prices or overload the portfolio
with current story stocks. Buy good companies, little by little, at
lower prices and avoid the typical investor's buy high, sell low
frustration.
9. Step away from calendar year, market value thinking. Most
investment errors involve unrealistic time horizon, and/or "apples
to oranges" performance comparisons. The get rich slowly path is a
more reliable investment road that Wall Street has allowed to become
overgrown, if not abandoned. Portfolio growth is rarely a
straight-up arrow and short-term comparisons with unrelated indices,
averages or strategies simply produce detours that speed progress
away from original portfolio goals.
10. Avoid the cheap, the easy, the confusing, the most popular, the
future knowing, and the one-size-fits-all. There are no freebies or
sure things on Wall Street, and the further you stray from
conventional stocks and bonds, the more risk you are adding to your
portfolio. When cheap is an investor's primary concern, what he gets
will generally be worth the price.
Compounding the problems that investors face managing their
investment portfolios is the sensationalism that the media brings to
the process. Step away from calendar year, market value thinking.
Investing is a personal project where individual/family goals and
objectives must dictate portfolio structure, management strategy,
and performance evaluation techniques.
Do most individual investors have difficulty in an environment that
encourages instant gratification, supports all forms of speculation,
and gets off on shortsighted reports, reactions, and achievements?
Yup.
NOTICE: Investment Reference does not recommend
or endorse any products, brokerage firms, CTAs, CPOs or representatives. All
material contained in any article is only the opinion of the person authoring the
article. Investment reference will publish any article submitted as a way of
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Reference also reserves the right to make the final decision on what to publish, and will
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Last modified:
January 01, 2010
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