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Retirement Income Investing and Your Portfolio
by
Steve Selengut
First, the good news: From June 2007 through September 2008 (i.e.,
during the credit crisis) Income CEF payouts per share were
virtually unchanged. From June 2008 through September 2008, payouts
rose slightly--- 29 funds raised their payouts and 17 lowered them.
Your portfolio spending money should be higher than it was a year
ago.
Brokerage firm monthly statements are designed to promote either
fear or greed, depending on the current market environment. Nowhere
on your statement can you find numbers that report your net
investment, your total working capital, or your true asset
allocation. Current and projected income numbers are given little
attention, and monthly withdrawals are treated like losses of
principal.
Income portfolios are reported upon using the same format as growth
portfolios, and too much analysis is required to determine if the
income production is either safe or adequate based on each
investor's personalized plan. Even for portfolios that, by design,
are retirement income providers, sleep-inducing comfort information
is not provided.
The most disconcerting column on the statement is the "Unrealized
Gain/Loss Column", particularly when you manage your portfolio
according to the Working Capital Model. All profits of any magnitude
are realized ASAP, and you should not expect a lot of your positions
to be "in the black". Wall Street statements create a perception
that the red numbers are bad, without any analysis of what should be
expected based on market conditions.
Wall Street has long ignored the income portion of the portfolio,
combining it in overall totals and summaries to confuse and befuddle
those who would prefer to have comfort and clarity on a more
personalized level. Recently, some pretty boring securities have
been speculatively sliced, diced, and re-formatted into MBWMFDs
(Mortgage Based Weapons of Mass Financial Destruction), causing most
income investors a great deal of discomfort.
The "Investment Grade Value Stock Expectation Analyzer" helps
investors understand the market value movements of high quality
equity securities. No statement should ever be a surprise--- in
either direction. A similar presentation for income CEFs cannot be
produced for lack of a recognized content rating system. The
statistics in the first paragraph are based on a portfolio of 114
managed income CEFs.
Income investing is naturally less risky than equity investing,
except when the credit markets are in turmoil as they are today.
Steps are being taken to reduce the problems, but no cure should
really be expected overnight. There have always been two types of
risk in income investing, and in that sense, nothing has changed.
(1) Credit risk involves the ability of corporations, government
entities, and even individuals, to make good on their financial
commitments; we minimize this risk by selecting only higher quality
(investment grade) securities. Thus far, there have been extremely
few actual defaults on high quality debt instruments--- none, I
believe, in the Municipal arena.
(2) Market risk, or the change in current market value, is
uncontrollable and unavoidable, but the impact of loss can be
minimized with proper diversification. There are many varieties of
income producers ranging from corporate, municipal, and government
debt, through various kinds of preferred securities, REITs and other
real estate investments, royalty trusts, etc. Typically, IRE
(interest rate expectations) moves these markets more than any other
factor.
Understanding that market value changes are normal, and having a
plan of action for dealing with such fluctuations, is essential. It
is important to understand as well, that providers of non-market
influenced savings vehicles like CDs must invest your money
elsewhere to pay you the amounts that they promise. You have access
to the very same investment vehicles--- and without as much
overhead.
Confucius say: Investor with income securities in safe deposit box
is always happy--- because he has no idea what the market value is,
and the income keeps rolling in.
Monitoring investment performance the Wall Street way is
inappropriate and problematic for income investors. It focuses on
short-term dislocations and uncontrollable cyclical changes,
producing constant disappointment and encouraging inappropriate
transactional responses. But safe deposit boxes are inconvenient.
One way to keep your eye on the income ball is to follow "Base
Income" statement totals instead of market value totals. Base income
includes only the dividends and interest produced by your portfolio
and, if you don't focus on it during market corrections, you can be
certain that your portfolio income at retirement will be inadequate.
A cost-based asset allocation formula is needed to grow your
retirement income.
The income portion of the portfolio will grow better where the focus
is on "working capital" instead of market value. This year, for
example, I have seen fearful investors move from CEF portfolios of
insured municipals yielding over 5% into 2% taxable CDs and Money
Market funds--- only because the fund market value has fallen in
reaction to the credit crunch.
The market value myopia normally makes income securities more
attractive at higher prices and lower yields, just as investors
generally feel much safer throwing their money at the stock market
when it is achieving new ATHs (All Time Highs). They do it all the
time--- this Wall Street conventional wisdom keeps most investors
hypnotized forever.
A Working Capital Model approach to your income portfolio will keep
you focused on the income and will make that whole retirement
investing thing significantly less scary. As far as the stock market
is concerned, this has now become the biggest investment opportunity
in at least the last twenty-five years.
Wall Street, as preoccupied as most of it is with survival, hasn't
had a chance to tell you, and the media--- well here's that
catastrophic hurricane they've been hoping for. Why aren't you
buying!
NOTICE: Investment Reference does not recommend
or endorse any products, brokerage firms, CTAs, CPOs or representatives. All
material contained in any article is only the opinion of the person authoring the
article. Investment reference will publish any article submitted as a way of
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Last modified:
January 01, 2010
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