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Think QDI
by
Steve Selengut
Value stocks are those that tend to trade at lower prices relative
to their fundamental characteristics than their more speculative
cousins, the growth stocks; they have higher than usual dividend
yields and lower P/E and P/B ratios. So when all stock prices are
down significantly, have they all become value stocks? Or, based on
the panicky fear that tends to overwhelm media and financial experts
alike, haven't they all taken on the speculative characteristics of
growth stocks?
Well, to a certain extent they have, because the lower value stock
prices go, the more likely it is that they will eventually
experience the 15% ROE that typifies the classic growth stock.
Interestingly, by definition, growth stocks are expected to be
associated with profitable companies, a fact that speculators often
lose site of. There are three features that separate value stocks
from growth stocks and two that separate Investment Grade Value (IGV)
stocks from the average, run-of-the-mill, variety.
Value stocks pay dividends, and have lower ratios than growth
stocks. IGV stock companies also have long-term histories of
profitability and an S & P rating of B+ or higher. Would you be
surprised to learn that neither the DJIA nor the S & P 500 contains
particularly high numbers of IGV stocks? Still, since 1982, value
stocks have outperformed growth stocks 62% of the time. So when an
ugly correction has a makeover, it's likely that all value stocks
transform themselves into growth stocks, at least temporarily.
Will Rogers summed up the stock selection quandary nicely with:
"Only buy stocks that go up. If they aren't going to go up, don't
buy them." Many have misunderstood this tongue-in-cheek observation
and joined the buy-anything-high investment club. You need dig no
further than the current lists (June '08) of "most advancing issues"
to see how investors are buying commodity companies and financial
futures at the highest prices in the history of mankind.
This while they are shunning IGVSI (Investment Grade Value Stock
Index) companies that have plummeted to their most attractive price
levels in three to five years. Many of the very best multinational
companies in the world are at historically low prices. Wall Street
smiles knowingly (and greedily) as Main Street hucksters tout gold,
currencies, and oil futures as retirement plan safety nets.
Regulatory agencies look the other way as speculations worm their
way into qualified plans of all varieties. Surely those markets will
be regulated some day--- after the next Bazooka-pink, gooey mess
becomes history.
How much financial bloodshed is necessary before we realize that
there is no safe and easy shortcut to investment success? When do we
learn that most of our mistakes involve greed, fear, or unrealistic
expectations about what we own? Eventually, successful investors
begin to allocate assets in a goal directed manner by adopting a
more realistic investment strategy--- one with security selection
guidelines and realistic performance definitions and expectations.
If you are thinking of trying a strategy for a year to see if it
works, you're being too short-term sighted--- the investment markets
operate in cycles. If you insist on comparing your performance with
indices and averages, you'll rarely be satisfied. A viable
investment strategy will be a three-dimensional decision model, and
all three decisions are equally important. Few strategies include a
targeted profit taking discipline--- dimension two. The first
dimension involves the selection of securities. The third?
How should an investor determine what stocks to buy, and when to buy
them? We've discussed the features of value and growth stocks and
seen how any number of companies can qualify as either dependent
upon where we are in terms of the market cycle or where they are in
terms of their own industry, sector, or business cycles. Value
stocks (and the debt securities of value stock companies) tend to be
safer than growth stocks. But IGVSI stocks are super-screened by a
unique rating system that is based on company survival statistics---
very important stuff.
In the late 90's, it was rumored that a well-known value fund
manager was asked why he wasn't buying dot-coms, IPOs, etc. When he
said that they didn't qualify as value stocks, he was told to change
his definition--- or else. IGV stocks include a quality element that
minimizes the risk of loss and normally smoothes the angles in the
market cycle. The market value highs are typically not as high, but
the market value lows are most often not as low as they are with
either growth or Wall Street definition value stocks. They work best
in conjunction with portfolios that have an income allocation of at
least 30%--- you need to know why.
How do we create a confidence building IGV stock selection universe
without getting bogged down in endless research? Here are five
filters you can use to come up with a listing of higher quality
companies: (1) An S & P rating of B+ or better. Standard & Poor's
combines many fundamental and qualitative factors into a letter
ranking that speaks only to the financial viability of the
companies. Anything rated lower adds more risk to your portfolio.
(2) A history of profitability. Although it should seem obvious,
buying stock in a company that has a history of profitable
operations is inherently less risky. Profitable operations adapt
more readily to changes in markets, economies, and business growth
opportunities. (3) A history of regular, even increasing, dividend
payments. Companies will go to great lengths, and endure great
hardships, before electing either to cut or to omit a dividend.
Dividend changes are important, absolute size is not.
(4) A Reasonable Price Range. Most Investment Grade stocks are
priced above $10 per share and only a few trade at levels above
$100. An unusually high price may be caused by higher sector or
company-specific speculation while an inordinately low price may be
a good warning signal. (5) An NYSE listing--- just because it's
easier.
Your selection universe will become the backbone of your equity
asset allocation, so there is no room for creative adjustments to
the rules and guidelines you've established--- no matter how
strongly you feel about recent news or rumor. There are
approximately 450 IGV stocks to choose from--- and you'll find the
name recognition comforting. Additionally, as these companies gyrate
above and below your purchase price (as they absolutely will), you
can be more confident that it is merely the nature of the stock
market and not an imminent financial disaster.
The QDI? Quality, diversification, and income.
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Copyright 1995 /2008 Investment Reference
Last modified:
July 01, 2008
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