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Volatility Rocks The Investment Markets
by
Steve Selengut
Gets your attention, doesn't it? The unfortunate
thing though, is that most people will react negatively to this
intentionally inflammatory, media-ready, title statement. Has some
Wall Street virus attacked our financial experience memory chip?
Bouncing around unpredictably is precisely what the markets have
always done. In the last forty years, there have been no less than
ten 20% or greater corrections followed by rallies that brought the
markets to significantly higher levels. Volatility is not a bad
thing--- a non-event, even.
Ironically, it is this routine volatility (caused by hundreds of
human, economic, political, and natural variables) that is the only
real certainty existent in the financial markets. Would anyone be
happy with market prices that didn't change? Should anyone expect
market valuations that only go up? So what's all the anxiety,
scrambling, and crying about? As absurd as this may sound at first
blush, you will never become a successful investor until you are
able to embrace market volatility as your dearest and closest
friend.
The Wall Street media is also your friend, because it fans investor
emotions to the point where rational thinking becomes impossible for
most participants. My observation the other night at dinner (that
the 400 point drop in the DJIA had provided an opportunity to
purchase dozens of IGV stocks at bargain prices) was met with vacant
stares. When I added that nearly half of those stocks had been sold
profitably in recent weeks--- you can imagine the shocked silence
that followed.
Investor perceptions of volatility need to be rearranged. When you
allow more than an up-only smiley face into your understanding of
the markets, you will be able to position yourself to actually take
advantage of the volatility while it is happening. When you realize
that the causes of market gyrations are not nearly as important as
the opportunities for bargain hunting and profit taking that they
produce, you'll be able to grow and to protect your portfolios from
your emotional dark side.
Let's talk about reality. There are many different ways that
professional investors and speculators make their fortunes in the
financial markets. The key is to know whether the path you are
following is too speculative for the destination you are seeking.
Over the past twenty years or so, the stock market has provided the
best returns for most investors--- yes, even better than
commodities, currencies, and ETFs (which didn't exist even ten years
ago). But balanced investment portfolios, those containing both
investment grade value stocks and income generating securities have
probably surpassed all others.
Let's talk about causation. There are far too many variables
affecting the movement of security prices to allow for accurate
prediction of either the scope or duration of short-term gyrations.
Every rally produces both a bubble of some kind and the pin that
will eventually do the bursting. Hindsight identifies all the
culprits and promises to regulate them out of the system so that the
future will be different. Don't kid yourself. The next rally will
come to the same bloody end as its predecessors.
But this year we have the opportunity to assure that our economic
future will be better. Much of the current skittishness in the
financial markets is caused by multiple economic concerns and the
incredibly naive resolution ideas being spouted by the presidential
candidates. And there are other, somehow out of the limelight,
economic issues that politicians are afraid to even consider. The
primary economic issues (jobs, energy, and economic growth) need to
be joined by Social Security reform, corporate tax reform, and term
limitations in congress.
No president, no matter how bold, can bring about meaningful change
without a less self-serving cast of characters in the legislative
branch. But this kind of change can't happen until we replace the
current batch of pork barrel politicians with a new group of change
orientated decision makers. Today's congress legislates mind-numbing
regulations that stifle creativity and economic growth. Investors
need to support fewer "taxors" and to elect a whole new group of
economic facilitators. Throw out the incumbents this November.
You just don't create jobs by taxing, regulating, and otherwise
strangling the job creators. In most communities, local governments
think of their non-voting corporate citizens as ratables instead of
as job providers. Serious jobs would be created, and general price
reductions produced (good or bad for the GDP?), through a controlled
elimination of all income taxation on legitimate corporate job
providers. Of course it would have to be regulated to assure jobs,
price reductions, and shareholder benefits, and not just more perks
for obscenely paid executives.
Similarly, taxing gasoline production and delivery organizations is
not going to bring down the price per barrel of crude oil. But
"taxing" the cartel that fixes the prices instead of bribing them
with protection from their enemies could work almost as well as
tapping into our own abundant supply and adding some long-needed
refining capacity. Eliminating state and federal gasoline taxes and
fees and taxes on interstate truckers would produce many cost/price
benefits as well.
Economic growth, more jobs, and lower prices could be the immediate
result of two relatively simple changes that neither of the
Presidential hopefuls have the courage to even whisper about.
Without nearly enough detail: (1) Over a five-year period, change
Social Security to a mandated-contribution, deferred, individual
fixed annuity program managed on a flat fee basis by 15-year
experienced insurance companies. No variable (stock market) benefit
plans would be allowed; all citizens would be eligible to
participate, and all employed persons (Congress included) would be
enrolled automatically. Contributions would be reduced and employer
participation eliminated.
(2) Eliminate all taxation on any form of retirement income
immediately, and phase out all taxation on all forms of investment
income over a five-year period. Replace those taxes with a 1%
Federal sales tax an all goods and services except food, shelter,
clothing, and health care.
Then, we can start to replace the Internal Revenue Code with
something simple, protect shareholders from unconscionable corporate
executive compensation, and come up with a solution for providing
adequate healthcare to everyone.
We have met the enemy and he is us--- Walt Kelly, Pogo
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Last modified:
June 20, 2008
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