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Crisis Investing - Three-Pronged WCM
Strategy
by
Steve Selengut
One of the great things about being a professional investor is the
opportunity one has to apply his or her long-term experience to the
investment environment that is unfolding (or coming unglued) in the
present.
If nothing else, most successful investors develop a consistent
strategy that allows them to take advantage of short-term changes
and the opportunities that they create in a somewhat unemotional
manner. You can always tell a "newbie" by a "let's see how you do
for a year" comment, or a "what's hot" question.
Wall Street would like us to ignore the fact that the stock market
is a cyclical beast that changes direction periodically, and almost
never at the turn of a calendar quarter or year--- cycles vary in
length, breadth, and direction. Inevitably, less experienced
investors get caught with their portfolio egos unprepared for market
realities.
Similarly, Wall Street would like investors to look at income
securities (bonds, CEFs, preferred stocks, etc.) with the same
analytical eye that they use for equities. They too are expected to
grow in market value forever, even though it's the income that the
investor is after. High total returns mean missed profit taking
opportunities more often than they signal increased income.
So as much as the wizards would like us to believe (a) that up
arrows are always good and down arrows always bad, and (b) that they
can get you safely hedged (protected) against the bad stuff with all
forms of creative portfolio care products; its just never going to
work that way.
Cycles are a good thing. They cleanse the markets of both fear and
greed residue, and (all appendages crossed please) this time,
perhaps, they'll point out that both multi-level derivatives and
congressional tinkering don't ever produce the intended results.
Unfortunately, investors in general are a lot like teenagers. They
know everything immediately; expect instant gratification; take
unnecessary risks; fall in love too easily; ignore all voices of
experience; prefer the easy approach; and feel that the lessons of
the past just can't possibly apply to what's going on now. Duh,
dude!
That said, what can Joe the plumber do to protect his 401(k), IRA,
or personal investment portfolio from the Bernies, Nancys, and
Harrys that are waiting in ambush? How does he protect himself from
unregulated scams, and Wall Street toxins now, and into the future?
Well, it requires a slightly more mature mindset than the new media
allows most investors the patience to develop, and an appreciation
of the miracle drugs that have saved the lives of comatose
portfolios victimized by the correction viruses of the past.
What if: (1) In the 30's, you had purchased shares in from 20 to 40
prominent, dividend paying, NYSE companies, or even in October '87,
or '97. Now, if you had sold all those issues that gained 10%, and
reinvested 70% of the profits keeping a diversified portfolio of
similar stocks, hitting "replay" religiously, how much more market
value would you have today?
What if: (2) At the same start date, 30% of your portfolio was
placed in high quality income securities, and 30% of the income
produced (and the remainder of that produced by equity profits) was
reinvested similarly, how much more income would you have today than
you do now?
If you combined the two analyses, how much more working capital
would be in your wallet? You would be amazed at the results of this
research; it would lead you to these portfolio life saving, and
KISS-principle preserving, conclusions:
One: Every market up cycle produces profit-taking opportunities, and
all reasonable profits should be realized--- in spite of the taxes.
Two: Every market down cycle produces buying opportunities, and
buying activities of three kinds must be continued throughout the
downturn.
Three: Compound income growth is a wonderful thing, so find
investment vehicles that can be added to routinely and, if spend you
must, always spend less than you make. Four: Unhappily, nearly all
of your past decision-making has been back---wards.
Just as the process described above is significantly more difficult
to implement with mutual funds and other products, so too is the
three-pronged strategy for dealing with market opportunities.
Reinvest portfolio generated income in three ways, and leisurely
according to your planned, working-capital-calculated, asset
allocation. Good judgment and an awareness of overall industry
conditions are always required:
One: Add new equity positions, in new industries if possible, and
keep initial positions smaller than usual. Never buy a stock that
does not meet all Working Capital Model (WCM) selection criteria,
and never stray more than 5% from your overall portfolio asset
allocation guidelines.
These acquisitions should be monitored closely for quick turnover,
at net/net profits of from seven to ten percent, depending on the
amount of smart cash (WCM again) in your portfolio.
Two: Add new income positions when yields are unusually or
artificially high, and watch for quick profits in this area as well.
When yields are normal or lower than normal, diversify into new
areas. For better results, do more "ones" than "twos" if possible.
Three: Add to positions in stocks that have maintained their quality
rating and dividend while falling 30% or more from your cost basis.
If the addition doesn't produce a significant change in cost per
share, return to "one" or "two".
Add to positions in income securities to decrease cost per share and
increase current yield simultaneously. Never allow a single position
to exceed 5% of total working capital.
When the going gets tough, the tough go shopping, avoiding the buy
high, sell low Wall Street game plan.
NOTICE: Investment Reference does not recommend
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Last modified:
January 01, 2010
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