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Wall Street Wisdom
vs. Market Cycle Investment Management
by
Steve Selengut
During every correction, I encourage investors to avoid the
destructive inertia that results from trying to determine: how low
can we go; how long will this last? Investors who add to their
portfolios during downturns invariably experience higher market
values during the next advance--- particularly if they focus on
Investment Grade Value Stocks (IGVS).
IGVS valuations have been trending upward for nearly a year; Market
Cycle Investment Management portfolios are eclipsing the all time
highs achieved in 2007, and income Closed End Fund values have risen
with surprisingly high yields still intact. The investment gods are
smiling once again--- but not on everyone.
Corrections are as much a part of the normal market cycle as
rallies, and they can be brought about by either bad news or good
news. (Yes, that's what I meant.) Investors always over-analyze when
prices become weak and over-indulge when prices are high, thus
perpetuating the "buy high, sell low" Wall Street lunacy.
Waiting for the perfect moment to jump into a falling market is as
foolish a strategy as taking losses on investment grade companies
and holding cash. Corrections in both equity and income securities
produce the same kind of hysteria as a spring sale at Macy's--- but
in reverse. Waiting for the perfect moment to bail out of a rising
market is as foolish a strategy as buying the most popular stocks at
52-week and/or all time highs.
The fundamental quality of securities does not change simply because
their prices rise and fall in response to market conditions. The
investment gods work in surprisingly un-mysterious ways, and they
get pretty annoyed when you don't pay attention to their teachings.
When all value stocks are moving lower, it's an opportunity, not a
problem. When all IGVS stocks are moving higher, it's also an
opportunity--- an opportunity to capture reasonable profits.
During every correction, I'm amazed at the shocked reaction of the
Media, the confused explanations from market gurus, and the poor
advice streaming from Wall Street. It's no wonder that the average
investor panics. If they could buy a new car, a new business suit,
or a new house for half price, they would be ecstatic.
Only on Wall Street are lower prices villains and higher prices
heroes. The Market Cycle Investment Management methodology
understands the inevitability of both, anticipates cyclical changes,
and takes advantage of market gyrations, big or small, and in either
direction.
The equity securities in your portfolio are inventory, not fixtures.
Inventory is best acquired at lower prices, marked-up a reasonable
amount for quick sale, and replaced with new inventory--- and repeat
the exercise as often as possible.
The income securities in your portfolio are fixtures--- and the
highest quality ones last the longest and produce the best. Their
purpose in your investment portfolio "business" is to generate the
spending money needed for current expenses now, and living expenses
later.
The calendar year has no particular investment relevance--- and if
we tried hard enough, we could possibly do something about a tax
code that rewards unsuccessful investments more than it encourages
profits. Investment performance analysis should be an objective
based program monitor instead of 365-day horse race with irrelevant
market indicators.
Rallies and corrections could be looked at like children--- learn to
love them equally and their parents (the investment gods) will
reward you with stable long term market value growth within a
balanced portfolio that produces annually increasing base income.
(Can you tell me what that is?)
There is an investment mindset solution for the problems that most
people have dealing with corrections, recessions, inflation and the
Red Sox. Bad news creates opportunities; so does good news. We have
allowed Wall Street and the media to turn the process of investing
into an endless series of circus sideshows.
The direction of the market isn't nearly as important as the actions
we take in anticipation of the next directional change. Performance
evaluation needs to be "rethunk" in terms of cycles. You need to
overcome your obsession with calendar period market value analysis,
and embrace a more manageable approach that centers on your
portfolio's unique business model.
The Market Cycle Investment Management methodology seems to get
people to where they want to be less stressfully and more
consistently than the more "conventional wisdom" based strategies---
and, you do want to keep the investment gods happy by appreciating
their market cycle children equally.
Steve Selengut
http://kiawahgolfinvestmentseminars.net
Author of: "The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book that
Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read", and "A Millionaire's Secret
Investment Strategy"
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Last modified:
February 22, 2010
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