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Quarterly Window Dressing - A Recurrent Wall Street Scam
by
Steve Selengut
"The time has come the walrus said, to talk of many things": Of
corrections--portfolios--- and window dressing--- of market
cycles--- wizards--- and reality.
Quarterly portfolio window dressing is one of many immortal
Jaberwock-like creatures that roam the granite canyons of the
Manhattan triangle, sending inappropriate signals to unwary
investors and media spokespersons. Many of you, like the
unsuspecting young oysters in the Lewis Carroll classic, are
responding to the daily news nonsense with fear instead of embracing
the new opportunities that are surely right there, cloaked, just
beyond your short-term vision field.
Older and wiser mollusks who have experienced the cyclical realities
of the markets tend to stick with proven strategies that are based
on a solid foundation of QDI (quality, diversification, and income
production). They know that corrections lead to rallies, and that
rallies always give way to corrections. If only the corrections
could elicit patience instead of fear; if only rallies didn't
produce greed and excess. There's a lot of confusion in a world that
considers commodities safer instruments than corporate bonds.
Long lasting investment portfolios are consciously asset allocated
between high quality income and equity securities. Each class of
securities is then diversified properly to mitigate the risk that
the failure of a single security issuer will bring down the entire
enterprise. Simply put, a portfolio with 100% invested in the
absolute, hands-down, best company on the planet is a high-risk
portfolio. There is no cure for cyclical changes in security market
values--- diversified portfolios thrive on it, in the long run.
The differences between a correction in either a market (equity or
debt) or a market sector (financials, drugs, transportation, etc.),
and a fall from grace in a specific company are important to
appreciate. Corrections are broad downward movements that affect
nearly all securities in a specific market. This particular one has
impacted prices in both investment markets, while creating rallies
in more speculative arenas. Ten years ago, the dot-com bubble began
under very similar circumstances. Ten years earlier, it was interest
rates--- and on, and on. When all prices are down, opportunity is at
hand.
There are approximately 450 Investment Grade Value Stocks, and at
least half are down significantly from their 52-week highs; fewer
than ten per cent were in this condition just over a year ago. But
very few companies have thrown in the towel, or even cut their
dividends. Closed end income fund prices are still well below the
levels they commanded when interest rates were much higher, yet they
provide the same cash flow as before the financial crises. The
economy and the markets have been through much worse.
Why aren't the wizards of Wall Street assuaging our nerves by
explaining the cyclical nature of the markets and pointing out that
similar crises have always preceded the attainment of new all time
highs? Right, because the unhappy investor is Wall Street's best
friend. Why can't politicians address economic problems with
capitalist-economic solutions? Fear, and the panic it evokes,
creates an easy market for walruses, oyster knives in hand.
Wall Street plays to the operative emotion of the day--- greed in
the commodities markets and fear in the others. Once per quarter,
they trim their holdings in unpopular sectors and add to their
positions in areas that have strengthened. Under current conditions
in the traditional investment arena, don't be surprised by larger
than usual cash holdings (certainly not "Smart Cash"). Window
dressing pushes the prices of your holdings lower, in spite of their
continued income production and sustained quality ratings.
How have the wizards managed to re-define the long-term investment
process as a quarterly horse race against indices and averages that
have no relationship to investor goals, objectives, or portfolio
content? Why do these proponents of long-term investment planning
and thinking religiously conspire to make short-term decisions that
prey upon the emotional weaknesses of their clients? The "art of
looking smart" window-dressing exercise accomplishes several things
in correcting markets:
The things you own are artificially manipulated lower in price to
make you even more uncomfortable with them, while the things you
don't have positions in stabilize or move higher. The glossies from
the new fund family your advisor is talking about show no holdings
in any of the current areas of weakness. It's easy to make fearful
investors change positions and/or strategies. Sic 'em boys.
Brilliant!
Value investors (those who invest in IGVSI stocks, and income
securities with an unbroken cash flow track record) may lapse into
fearful thinking as well, and this is where the Working Capital
Model comes to the rescue. By focusing on the purpose of the
securities you own, their enhanced attractiveness at lower prices
becomes obvious. Higher yields at lower market valuations and more
shares at lower prices equal faster realized profits as the numbers
move higher during the next upward movement of the cycle. That's
just the way it is. A reality you can count on.
Surprisingly few investors have the courage to take advantage of
market corrections. Even more surprising is how reluctant the most
respected institutional walruses are to suggest buying when prices
are low. The instant gratification expectation of investors combined
with the infallibility expected of professionals, by both the media
and their employers, is the cause. Gurus are expected to know what,
when, and how much. Consequently, they prefer to manipulate their
portfolios to create an illusion of past brilliance, rather than
taking the chance that they may actually be in the right position a
few quarters down the road. There is no know in investing.
The stock market yard sale is in full swing--- add to your
retirement accounts, buy more of IGVSI stocks at bargain prices,
increase your dependable income and increase current yields at the
same time. Apply patience, and vote for economic solutions to
economic problems.
NOTICE: Investment Reference does not recommend
or endorse any products, brokerage firms, CTAs, CPOs or representatives. All
material contained in any article is only the opinion of the person authoring the
article. Investment reference will publish any article submitted as a way of
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Reference also reserves the right to make the final decision on what to publish, and will
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Copyright 1995 /2008 Investment Reference
Last modified:
June 24, 2008
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