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Investors Dig The BIG Buy Low
by
Steve Selengut
Every correction is the same, a normal downturn in one or more of
the Markets where we invest. There has never been a correction that
has not proven to be an investment opportunity. You can be confident
that the Federal Reserve, as hypnotized as it is with keeping
inflation under control, is not going to cause either a financial
panic or a prolonged recession with tight money and high interest
rate policies. While everything is down in price, as it is now,
there is little to worry about. When the going gets tough, the tough
go shopping.
Every correction is different, the result of various economic and/or
political circumstances that create the need for adjustments in the
financial markets. In this case, the overheated real estate market
took a breather; an overdose of bad judgment among lending
institutions produced a major hangover; and a damn the torpedoes
Stock Market, propelled by demand for speculative derivative
securities (ETFs), and Hedge Funds is finally falling back to more
earthly levels.
The reality of corrections is one of the few certainties of the
financial world, a reality that separates the men from the boys, if
you will. If you fixate on your portfolio Market Value during a
correction, you will just give yourself a headache, or worse. None
of the fundamental qualities that made your securities "Investment
Grade" just six months ago---when your Market Value was at an All
Time High---have changed. Very few (if any) interest payments or
dividends have been cut. Only the prices have changed, to preserve
the reality of things---and in both of our markets. Welcome to the
Big Buy Low!
Corrections are beautiful things, but having two of them going on at
the same time is like a trip to Fantasy Land. Theoretically, even
technically I'm told, corrections adjust prices to their actual
value or "support levels". In reality, it's much easier than that.
Prices go down because of speculator reactions to expectations of
news, speculator reactions to actual news, and investor profit
taking. The two former "becauses" are more potent than ever before
because there is more self-directed money out there than ever
before. And therein lies the core of correctional beauty! Mutual
Fund unit holders rarely take profits but often take losses.
Additionally, the new breed of Index Fund Speculators is ready for a
reality smack up alongside the head. Thus, new investment
opportunities are abundant!
Here's a list of ten things to think about or to do during
corrections:
1. First of all, don't beat yourself up by looking at your account
Market Value. You don't live in a vacuum and you are not immune to
market price variations. That is why you should only buy the highest
quality securities in the first place and stick with a well-defined
Asset Allocation plan. Look for ways to add to your
portfolios---that's what the smart guys are doing.
2. Take a look at the past. There has never been a correction that
has not proven to be a buying opportunity, in spite of the media
hype that this one is somehow special. When they are broad, fast,
and deep, the rally that follows is normally broad, fast and steep.
Get ready to party... soon!?
3. The Smart Cash that was accumulating during the last rally, the
one that ended abruptly in May, should be mostly back to work. too
soon is normal. There are no crystal balls, and no place for
hindsight in an investment strategy. Buying too soon, in the right
portfolio percentage, is nearly as important to long-term investment
success as selling too soon is during rallies.
4. Take a look at the future. Nope, you can't tell when the rally
will come or how long it will last. If you are buying quality
securities now (as you certainly should be) you will be able to love
the rally even more than you did the last time---as you take yet
another round of profits. Smiles broaden with each new realized
gain, especially when most Wall Streeters are still just scratchin'
their heads.
5. As (or if) the correction continues, buy more slowly as opposed
to more quickly, and establish new positions incompletely so that
you can add to them safely later. Hope for a short and steep
decline, but prepare for a long one. There's more to "Shop at The
Gap" than meets the eye, and you may run out of cash well before the
new rally begins. Cash flow is king, so take smaller profits sooner
than usual as long as there are abundant buying opportunities.
Today, nearly sixty percent of all Investment Grade Value Stocks are
down more than 15% from their 52-week highs.
6. Your understanding and use of the Smart Cash concept proves the
wisdom of The Investor's Creed. You should be out of cash while the
market is still correcting---it gets less scary each time. As long
your cash flow continues unabated, the change in market value is
merely a perceptual issue.
7. Note that your Working Capital is still growing, in spite of
falling prices, and examine your holdings for opportunities to
average down on cost per share or to increase your yield on fixed
income securities. Examine both fundamentals and price, lean hard on
your experience, and don't force the issue.
8. Identify new buying opportunities using a consistent set of
rules, rally or correction. That way you will always know which of
the two you are dealing with in spite of what the Wall Street
propaganda mill spits out. Focus on Investment Grade Value Stocks;
it's just easier, as well as being less risky, and better for your
peace of mind.
9. Examine your portfolio's performance: with your asset allocation
and investment objectives clearly in focus; in terms of market and
interest rate cycles as opposed to calendar Quarters (never do that)
and Years; and only with the use of the Working Capital Model,
because it allows for your personal asset allocation. The only index
number to use for comparison purposes with a properly designed value
portfolio is the brand new IGVSI.
10. So long as everything is down, there is nothing to worry about.
Downgraded (or simply lazy) portfolio holdings should not be
discarded during general or group specific weakness. Unless of
course, you don't have the courage to get rid of them during
rallies---also general or sector spefical (sic).
Corrections (of all types) will vary in depth and duration, and both
characteristics are clearly visible only in institutional-grade rear
view mirrors. The short and deep ones are most lovable; the long and
slow ones are more difficult to deal with. Most recent corrections
have been short (August and September, '05; April though June, '06)
and difficult to take advantage of with Mutual Funds. So if you
over-think the environment or over-cook the research, you'll miss
the party. Unlike many things in life, Stock Market realities need
to be dealt with quickly, decisively, and with zero hindsight.
Because amid all of the uncertainty, there is one indisputable fact
that reads equally well in either market direction: there has never
been a correction-rally that has not succumbed to the next
rally-correction.
If you were head scratching on Smart Cash, Working Capital, or The
Investor's Creed, hit your search button.
NOTICE: Investment Reference does not recommend
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material contained in any article is only the opinion of the person authoring the
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Last modified:
April 05, 2008
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